By Energy Desk
Despite bold claims of improved performance by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPCL, Nigeria’s crude oil output in 2025 has remained well below both its budgeted projections and the production ceiling set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, OPEC. This is according to official NUPRC data and international trackers reviewed by this newspaper.
In December 2024, NNPC widely publicised achieving a “peak production” of 1.84 million barrels per day. Yet in 2025, despite the replacement of the company’s management and board, NNPC has failed to replicate that figure or reach the Federal Government’s promised two million barrels per day benchmark. The distance between official rhetoric and verifiable output continues to widen.
The 2025 Appropriation Act assumed crude oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day. However, month-by-month NUPRC data show persistent shortfalls, with independent analyses estimating an 18 to 19 per cent gap between budgeted and actual production. Nigeria produced hundreds of thousands of barrels per day less than projected, directly undermining revenue expectations.
Nigeria’s OPEC and OPEC Plus quota for 2025 remained at 1.5 million barrels per day. Verified figures indicate that actual production generally fluctuated between 1.4 and 1.5 million barrels per day, occasionally inching close to quota but rarely meeting it. October 2025 output stood at 1.401 million barrels per day, marginally above September but still below quota. Quarterly averages reflected the same pattern with 1.468 million barrels per day in the first quarter, 1.481 million barrels per day in the second quarter, and 1.444 million barrels per day in the third quarter. A brief improvement in June, when output rose to approximately 1.547 million barrels per day, represented a momentary alignment with the quota, but the gains were not sustained. Government documents for the 2026 fiscal framework now assume a more modest baseline production of 1.84 million barrels per day, a tacit admission that earlier targets were unrealistic.
Industry reports and expert commentary cite a combination of structural weaknesses and operational setbacks. Operational outages, including platform fires and prolonged maintenance at major fields, disrupted liftings. Security challenges and chronic under-investment in ageing onshore and shallow-water assets continue to limit the country’s ability to restore previously shut-in barrels. Analysts argue that these issues reflect deep governance and capacity deficiencies within NNPC and the broader petroleum sector.
The Federal Government has acknowledged the output gap and is implementing policy adjustments. Medium-term fiscal plans now reflect more conservative production assumptions. Licensing rounds have been expanded, with officials pushing reforms designed to attract investment, promote transparency, and support new field development. However, many industry voices argue that without structural reform of state-owned assets, policy adjustments alone will not deliver the required scale of improvement.
Persistent underproduction widens the gap between projected and actual revenue, creating fiscal strain unless prices rise or spending is curtailed. While Nigeria has not exceeded its OPEC quota, unexpected outages often tighten regional supply and contribute to short-term market volatility.
The persistent underperformance has intensified calls for deeper restructuring of NNPCL. At the 2025 NAPE Conference, Olu Arowolo Verheijen, Special Adviser to the President on Energy, criticised the company’s operational limitations and warned that Nigeria cannot achieve its long-term aspiration of three million barrels per day under the current structure. She disclosed that NNPC’s own Exploration and Production subsidiary contributes only about 220,000 barrels per day, less than ten per cent of national output. This highlights the limited direct output from the state company despite its dominant role in joint ventures and asset control.
Verheijen has consistently advocated a shift toward private-sector-driven asset operations, improved governance, and a commercially competitive NNPC capable of raising capital and executing large-scale developments. Many analysts contend that the current leadership lacks the capacity to deliver on these expectations.
Nigeria’s 2025 oil production story is one of underperformance and uncertainty. The country consistently fell short of both budgeted expectations and its OPEC quota, underscoring long-standing structural issues within the upstream sector. While the government pursues reforms, industry stakeholders maintain that meaningful progress will require bold restructuring, robust investment, and a radical improvement in NNPC’s operational delivery.
