Tension is rising in Borno State after a military strategist warned that the security situation in Nigeria’s North-East may be worsening, raising fears of potential large-scale attacks by insurgents.
The strategist cautioned that militants from Boko Haram appear to be tightening their grip around Maiduguri, the state capital, warning that the situation could escalate if urgent action is not taken.
Speaking to SaharaReporters on Tuesday, the security source said the insurgents may be positioning for significant assaults on both Maiduguri and Bama, two strategic locations in the region.
“The situation is getting out of hand. Maiduguri is encircled, besieged. A replay of Mogadishu is about to begin. The political and military leadership are in denial,” the source said, referencing the prolonged instability experienced in Mogadishu.
The source urged Nigeria’s leadership, including the President and Commander-in-Chief, to heed expert advice and take decisive steps to prevent further deterioration of the security situation.
“I pray that common sense prevails and the President and Commander-in-Chief listens to wise counsel. Konduga is strategic and vital for the defence of Maiduguri,” the strategist added.
According to the military insider, recent battlefield setbacks suffered by Nigerian troops in the North-East have emboldened insurgents and made the region increasingly vulnerable.
The source said the loss of key strategic locations has altered the operational balance in favour of the insurgents.
“Now that the Boko Haram terrorists have dislodged it and are effectively in control, they have isolated troops based in Bama,” the source explained.
The development, the strategist warned, could enable the insurgents to launch coordinated attacks on multiple targets across the state.
“By taking out the unit in Ngoshe and a sub-unit in Pulka under the 26 Task Force Brigade, the insurgents could either attack or besiege Bama as Konduga is dislodged, or straightaway attack Maiduguri,” the source said.
The strategist noted that insurgents might attempt to capture Bama first before turning their focus to Maiduguri.
Another possible scenario, the source added, could involve simultaneous attacks on multiple towns in order to stretch the resources of the Nigerian Army.
“A third option for the insurgents is to simultaneously attack Maiduguri and Bama while engaging Monguno as a deception, in order to take down troops and thereby prevent them from interfering with their attacks on Maiduguri,” the source said.
The strategist also warned that the recent losses suffered by Nigerian troops in counterinsurgency operations have begun to affect morale among soldiers.
“The setback that the military has suffered in recent weeks in the North East is demoralising the troops. This is likely to affect their fighting spirit,” the source said.
Meanwhile, the insurgents appear to be gaining confidence on the battlefield.
“On the other hand, the insurgents appear to have momentum on their side, and given such a situation, they may feel emboldened to attempt an attack on Maiduguri and Bama either simultaneously or in two phases,” the source warned.
Despite the grim outlook, the strategist advised the military not to remain solely on the defensive.
“I don’t know what the military leadership is planning, but one thing I will advise against is for the military to remain in defence,” the source said.
“The military should try to stabilise their immediate positions and thereafter go on the offensive. It’s a tricky and dicey situation that requires careful planning and coordination.”
The security expert stressed that history shows wars are rarely won by defensive strategies alone.
“The military commander knows that battles and wars are not won by remaining in a defensive position,” the source said.
He also acknowledged the enormous pressure facing Nigeria’s military leadership, noting that security forces are currently battling armed groups across several parts of the country, particularly in the North-West and North-Central regions.
The warning comes amid renewed attacks by insurgents in Borno State.
Earlier, SaharaReporters reported that a senior officer of the Nigerian Army, Umar Farouq, a Lieutenant Colonel and Commanding Officer, was killed during a fresh attack on a military base in the state.
The attack reportedly took place in Kukawa, where militants linked to the Islamic State-backed faction of Boko Haram launched a coordinated assault on a military facility.
Sources said the attackers overran the base, set military vehicles on fire and carted away ammunition before targeting residents in the community located in Kukawa Local Government Area.
The incident occurred less than 72 hours after another senior officer, S.I. Iliyasu, the Commanding Officer of 222 Battalion, was killed alongside some soldiers in Konduga during a separate insurgent attack.
In recent months, military formations in the region have repeatedly come under attack.
Between late Thursday night and early Friday morning last week, insurgents reportedly launched coordinated assaults on four military bases located in Konduga, Mainok, Jakana and Marte.
During the attacks, the militants allegedly fired sporadically at military positions, destroyed armoured tanks and vehicles, and seized large quantities of ammunition.
Security sources, however, said troops were able to repel some of the assaults and killed several insurgents during the engagements.
