The World Bank has downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth projection to an average of 4.1 percent in 2026, down from its earlier forecast of 4.4 percent made in October 2025.
The bank also revised its outlook for subsequent years, projecting growth of 4.2 percent in 2027 and 4.3 percent in 2028.
In its April 2026 Africa Economic Update titled “Making Industrial Policy Work in Africa,” the global lender said Nigeria’s growth prospects are supported by improving macroeconomic stability and a gradual rebound in investment.
According to the report, the services sector—particularly ICT, finance, and real estate—is expected to remain the primary driver of growth, while agriculture and industry may expand at a slower pace due to persistent structural challenges.
The bank also projected a decline in inflation, estimating that it could fall from 23 percent in 2025 to 14.9 percent in 2026, and further to 10.7 percent by 2028, driven by tighter monetary policies and improved supply conditions.
However, it warned that several risks could weigh on the outlook, including global economic uncertainty, security challenges, commodity price volatility, and policy uncertainty ahead of the 2027 general elections.
The report noted that while rising oil prices could boost government revenues, they may also introduce volatility into the economy.
Across sub-Saharan Africa, the World Bank projected an average growth rate of 4.1 percent in 2026, adding that forecasts for several major economies—including Nigeria, Angola, Kenya, Mozambique, Senegal, South Africa, and Zambia—have been revised downward.
“Overall, about 60 percent of the countries in the region (29 of 47) recorded downward revisions to their 2026 growth forecasts,” the report stated.
Despite the downgrade, the bank highlighted positive trends such as improved inflation control, relatively stronger currencies, and easing food and fuel prices, which have helped support private consumption and investment.
It also cautioned that rising global tensions, particularly conflicts in the Middle East, could increase energy prices, disrupt trade flows, and trigger renewed inflationary pressures.
