Crude Theft Surges in Q4 2025 as NUPRC Reports 17% Drop in Oil and Gas Revenue

Nigeria recorded approximately 3.33 million barrels of crude oil losses to theft in 2025 despite billions of naira spent on securing petroleum infrastructure through government-backed pipeline surveillance contracts and other energy security interventions.

The losses occurred despite the Federal Government’s engagement of private security firms, including Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited, owned by former Niger Delta militant leader Government Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Tompolo. The company reportedly receives an annual payment of N48bn for pipeline surveillance services.

The development coincided with a decline in the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission’s (NUPRC) oil and gas revenue collections, which dropped by N2.14tn within the year.

According to the commission’s 2025 annual report, released on Thursday, total crude oil and gas revenue fell from N12.56tn in 2024 to N10.42tn in 2025, representing a 17.03 per cent decrease.

A breakdown of crude theft figures showed that the situation deteriorated considerably towards the end of the year, with the fourth quarter accounting for the largest share of reported losses.

The commission recorded 896,471 barrels of stolen crude in the first quarter, while the second quarter produced a negative figure of 200,400 barrels, attributed to excess volumes identified during reconciliation.

In the third quarter, reported losses stood at 440,434 barrels before climbing dramatically to 2.19 million barrels in the final three months of the year.

The fourth-quarter figure accounted for approximately 65.8 per cent of the total reported losses and was nearly five times the volume recorded in the preceding quarter.

The report stated: “Nigeria recorded 896,471 barrels of crude oil theft in the first quarter.

“The second quarter recorded a negative 200,400 barrels, which the commission described as an excess volume in its reconciliation. Reported theft stood at 440,434 barrels in the third quarter. The fourth quarter recorded 2.19 million barrels, the highest quarterly volume of the year.”

The continued loss of crude oil comes amid a significant increase in expenditure on protecting the country’s oil and gas assets.

The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) reported spending N8.67tn on energy security interventions in 2025, compared with approximately N3.1tn in the previous year.

Although the expenditure covers broader measures aimed at protecting petroleum infrastructure and maintaining national energy security, the persistent theft of crude has raised questions about the effectiveness of existing security arrangements.

The stolen volumes represent potential revenue losses for the government, reduced export earnings and crude supplies that could otherwise support domestic refining operations.

Despite the reported theft, Nigeria produced 541.08 million barrels of crude oil and blended condensate during the year.

Quarterly production figures showed that 132.70 million barrels were produced in the first quarter, 137.69 million in the second, 137.45 million in the third and 133.23 million in the final quarter.

The country also recorded 48.52 million barrels of unblended condensate production in 2025.

On revenue performance, oil and gas royalties, including Project Gazelle and NNPC receivables, remained the commission’s largest revenue source, generating N8.97tn during the year.

However, this represented a decline of N2.11tn from the N11.08tn recorded in 2024, amounting to a 19.03 per cent reduction.

The annual report further disclosed that the commission generated N10.42tn against a projected revenue target of N16.54tn, representing 63 per cent of its expected collection.

It stated: “The total approved budget for 2025 was N645,462,335,500.80, with total income of N342,814,462,174.97 and total expenditure was N304,533,385,103. Total revenue generated was N10,424,478,448,682.40, which is 63 per cent of projected revenue of N16,538,206,608,738.00.

“357 oil spill incidents were reported. 49.5 per cent of the spills were a result of sabotage. There was an increase of 64.74 per cent in revenue in 2024 over 2023 and a decrease of 20.53 per cent in 2025 over 2024 revenues.”

Meanwhile, some revenue categories recorded growth despite the overall decline in collections.

Receipts from gas flare penalties increased by 56.27 per cent, rising from N391.26bn in 2024 to N611.42bn in 2025.

Signature bonuses also climbed by 44.2 per cent, from N369.58bn to N532.94bn, while concession rentals increased by 61.1 per cent, moving from N23.71bn to N38.19bn.

Miscellaneous revenue rose from N35.20bn to N46.44bn within the same period.

However, royalty by price declined from N313.72bn to N213.41bn, while revenue from lease renewals suffered a sharper drop, falling from N230.73bn in 2024 to N8.23bn in 2025.

The NUPRC’s income from the cost of revenue collection and internally generated revenue increased by 21.85 per cent to N342.81bn in 2025, compared with N281.34bn recorded in the previous year.

Of the amount, N335.45bn came from the cost of revenue collection, while internally generated revenue contributed N7.36bn.

The report also documented 357 oil spill incidents across the country during the year, with sabotage identified as the cause of 49.5 per cent of the cases, highlighting the continuing security and environmental challenges confronting Nigeria’s petroleum industry.